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E/CN.17/1998/7/Add.1 |
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Economic and Social Council
Distr. GENERAL
20 April-1 May 1998
ORIGINAL: ENGLISH
Economic and Social Council
Commission on Sustainable Development
Sixth session
20 April-1 May 1998
Progress in the implementation of the Programme of Action for the
Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States
Report of the Secretary-General
Addendum
Climate change and sea level rise *
(* The present report has been prepared by the United Nations Environment
Programme in accordance with arrangements agreed to by the Inter-Agency
Committee on Sustainable Development; it is the result of consultation and
information exchange between United Nations agencies, interested government
agencies and a range of other institutions and individuals.)
Contents
Paragraphs Page
I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3
II. Current situation and future prospects . . . . . 2-8 3
III. Actions at the national and regional levels. . . 9-16 4
A. National action. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-13 4
B. Regional action. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-16 4
IV. International action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17-25 5
A. Scientific understanding of climate change
and sea level rise and their impacts . . . . 18-19 5
B. Activities related to the implementation of
the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20-23 5
C. Monitoring activities. . . . . . . . . . . . 24-25 6
V. Recommendations for future action. . . . . . . . 26-34 6
A. National level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26-27 6
B. Regional level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28-29 6
C. International level. . . . . . . . . . . . . 30-34 7
I. Introduction
1. The present report reviews the efforts made to address
the concerns of small island developing States with regard
to climate change and sea level rise. It seeks to identify
actions that have been taken nationally, regionally and
globally to address those problems; identify gaps and
factors deemed responsible for inaction to date; and suggest
areas where concentrated efforts are needed in the future.
II. Current situation and future
prospects
2. In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change examined evidence on climate change. They
concluded that global mean surface air temperature has
increased by about 0.3-0.6øC since the late nineteenth
century. Analysis of trends in sea surface temperature
produce similar results. They also noted that the mean
temperature through the twentieth century has been at least
as warm as in any century over the last 600 years. Based on
these and other analyses, the Panel concluded that the
balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence
on climate. Because the populations, agricultural land and
infrastructure of small island developing States tend to be
concentrated in the coastal zones, they are especially
vulnerable to climate change, particularly to the resulting
sea level rise.
3. The 1995 IPCC assessment of changes in sea level
provides observational evidence on sea level trends
associated with possible climate change. Recent analyses
of the climate record suggest that the global mean sea level
has risen 10 to 25 cm over the last 100 years. The rise in sea
level over the past century due to thermal expansion is
estimated to be 2 to 7 cm, while that due to melting of
glaciers and the ice caps is in the range of 2 to 5 cm. The
evidence on the net contribution from the ice sheets is too
weak to support any firm conclusions. There is similar
uncertainty with respect to land and groundwater, although
their contribution is estimated to be small.
4. Climate models are increasingly being used as tools
to aid the understanding of climate change and to make
future projections. They attempt, within the limits of
current scientific knowledge and the capacity of current
computers, to represent the complex physics and dynamics
of the earth-atmosphere-ocean-land-ice systems. The ability
of such models to simulate past and present climate has
been improving, and they are being used with increasing
confidence to understand natural and possibly human-induced
climate change. Many such models now include
sea level as one of the variables, though it can also be
estimated a posteriori.
5. The models are predicting an increase in global mean
surface air temperature of about 2øC over the next century.
Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission rates and model
limitations lead to uncertainties in projected climate change
impacts as well. For example, the large capacity of the
oceans to absorb heat as well as regional sensitivities lead
to significant variations from this mean value around the
globe. The slow response of the oceans to absorbed heat
also allows for considerable heat buffering, thereby
delaying the impact of heating.
6. Such models have been used to project changes in sea
level. Depending upon the particular scenario being used
and model uncertainties, the best estimate value of sea level
rise, taking into account water expansion due to heating and
glacial and polar melting, is about 50 cm over the next
century, with a range of 13 to 94 cm. Most of this projected
rise is attributed to thermal expansion. The rise will
probably not be uniform given the differential response of
the oceans to heating and circulation changes. Changes in
variability, changing intensities and/or frequencies, the
effects of El Nin~o etc. are also potential variables.
However, they are difficult to predict with any confidence.
7. The potential socio-economic impacts of climate
change on small island developing States are the subject of
many studies of vulnerability carried out on the basis of the
IPCC common methodology. Small island States are
characterized by highly diverse ecosystems that are
important as a source of food and as habitat for many
species. Studies suggest that overexploitation of resources
has led to a loss of resilience in small island developing
States in coping with climate change and concomitant sea
level rise. Depending on the scenario used (one metre sea
level rise in most cases), the studies suggest that sea level
rise would have negative impacts on tourism, freshwater
supply and quality, aquaculture, agriculture, human
settlements, financial services and human health in small
island developing States. Storm surges are likely to have
a harmful impact on low-lying small island developing
States, leading to costly investments in protective measures.
In addition, low-lying deltaic and burier coasts and
low-elevation reef islands and coral atolls are especially
vulnerable to a rising sea level, as well as to rainfall, storm
frequency and intensity. Inundation, flooding, erosion and
intrusion of sea water are among the likely impacts. Such
impacts would affect productivity in small island
developing States and seriously compromise their economic
well-being. Any shifts in rainfall regimes -- especially if
tropical cyclones increase in intensity and frequency -- will
also seriously disrupt the lives of small island developing
States populations. Parts of the very low-lying islands not
protected by sea walls could be submerged by only a one-metre
rise in the sea level resulting from any storm surges.
8. The costs of responding to climate change depend on
the options considered. They include (a) prevention:
striving to prevent climate change; (b) adaptation:
emphasizing strategies and measures for reducing expected
damages; and (c) policies: indirectly inducing reduced
emissions of greenhouse gases. Although there are no
accurate estimates of costs of protection against climate
change in small island developing States per se, IPCC
estimates that adaptations to climate change could lead to
an average cost approximately equal to 0.43 per cent of
gross domestic product of most developing countries. For
the Caribbean small island developing States, IPCC has
projected the costs of new construction of protection alone
at US$ 1.1 billion (1990).
III. Actions at the national and regional levels
A. National action
9. There have been varying degrees of national-level
efforts within small island developing States. Most island
countries have ratified the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, and are acting to ensure
compliance through a coordinated series of projects (see
sect. IV below). Some countries, such as Fiji, Marshall
Islands and Micronesia, are undertaking studies of
greenhouse gas sources and sinks, with assistance from the
United States Country Studies Program. Comprehensive
and coordinated support to all Pacific island Parties to the
Convention will be provided under the Global Environment
Facility (GEF)-funded Pacific Islands Climate Change
Assistance Project, which will assist countries in meeting
their national reporting obligations under the Convention.
10. Broad strategic directions related to climate change
are covered in the national environmental management
strategies of most Pacific small island developing States.
In some cases, specific policies or strategies for climate
change are being developed; in others, they are being
integrated into coastal management plans. National
workshops have been held in Vanuatu, Solomon Islands,
Samoa, Niue and Micronesia, focusing on developing
policy and planning for climate-related damage in general,
rather than solely on climate change. The United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) is supporting a study on
country case studies on climate change impacts and
assessment and adaptation in Cuba, with financial support
from the Government of Denmark. Additional UNEP small
island developing States-related activities include projects
to assist small island developing States in preparing their
national communications for the Convention; the countries
involved are Niue and Mauritius, and proposals for similar
enabling activities in Cuba, Haiti, Comoros and the
Dominican Republic are also in the preparation stage.
11. Many small island developing States have operational
climate data-collection systems. For example, the South
Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) is
developing a programme to enable countries to collect,
analyse and interpret meteorological data. As part of the
South Pacific Sea Level Rise Monitoring Project (funded
by Australia), gauges to monitor sea level have been
established in 11 countries in the South Pacific.
12. Studies in 12 Pacific island countries, designed to
assess where impacts are likely to be greatest, have also
been carried out on the basis of geographical, physical,
social and economic indicators. In addition, studies of
vulnerability to erosion have been conducted in Fiji and
Kiribati, and in-country seminars on coastal monitoring
have been held in Tuvalu, Kiribati and Samoa.
13. Little work has been undertaken to develop detailed
strategies for adaptation in small island developing States
at the national level. Ongoing work to determine
vulnerability to climate change and to meet national
reporting obligations under the Convention will provide an
essential foundation for such strategies. These strategies
will be linked to activities for strengthening the integrated
coastal management capacity of small island developing
States.
B. Regional action
14. Small island developing States have a strong sense of
common purpose in their quest to address the causes and
impacts of climate change. A network of climate change
focal points has been established in the Pacific, and SPREP
continues to coordinate climate change activities, including
through workshops. To date, the most significant initiative
seeking to address the issue of climate change is that arising
from the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global
Climate Change (CPACC) project being funded by GEF.
Participating small island developing States include
Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize,
Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint
Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. The overall project
objective is to support Caribbean countries in preparing to
cope with the adverse effects of global climate change,
particularly sea level rise, in coastal and marine areas, by
means of vulnerability assessment, adaptation planning and
capacity-building linked to adaptation planning.
15. A Caribbean ministerial meeting held in November
1997 on the programme of action for the sustainable
development of Caribbean small island States
recommended that the Caribbean States:
(a) Support the continuing work of IPCC in
studying the science and impacts of global climate change;
(b) Fully incorporate climate change considerations
in their national long-term development planning process;
(c) Coordinate the execution of national
communications required by the Convention among
Caribbean small island developing States, by exchanging
experiences and lessons;
(d) Request the Caribbean Community and the
Organization of American States to support Caribbean
States in developing their scientific and technical capacity,
and the use of scientific information being generated by
CPACC for development policy formulation, and in
strategic forward planning to mitigate the impacts of
climate change;
(e) Support development of the necessary
institutional mechanism to ensure that critical programmes
initiated under CPACC are sustained beyond the lifetime
of the project.
16. Other regional activities have been carried out under
the UNEP Regional Seas Programme. Task teams have been
established to study the implications of climate change in
East Africa, West and Central Africa, the Mediterranean,
the South-East Pacific, the South Pacific, East Asia, South
Asia, and the Kuwait Action Plan region. Each task team
has produced a report on the implications of climate change
on coastal areas of countries, including small island
developing States, in the respective regional seas
programmes. A synthesized report was subsequently
prepared by UNEP on the basis of a workshop involving all
the task team leaders.
IV. International action
17. Within their mandates, a number of international
organizations and United Nations agencies have taken
initiatives to help small island developing States to respond
to climate change and sea level rise. The World Health
Organization, the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO), UNEP and the United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and its
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) are
among the agencies carrying out activities of relevance to
small island developing States. The United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change provides for a
financial mechanism to assist non-annex 1 Parties to meet
their obligations under the Convention.
A. Scientific understanding of climate change
and sea level rise and their impacts
18. The World Climate Research Programme which is
co-sponsored by UNESCO/IOC, WMO and the International
Council of Scientific Unions, is carrying out major research
projects, such as (a) a world ocean circulation experiment,
which is designed to determine how the oceans work and
what changes (e.g., sea level changes) are currently
occurring; and (b) a climatic variability project (CLIVAR),
designed to determine how the oceans (including the sea
level) and the atmosphere vary naturally over time. UNEP
has established a working group on the El Nin~o Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) to examine the potential of using ENSO
forecasts in early warning systems for famine, and how it
could be utilized to forestall the adverse impacts of climate
variability. UNEP is also examining the implications that
climate change may have for the frequency and intensity
of ENSO-related events and their impacts on socio-economic systems.
19. A working group on climate change detection and
attribution has been established jointly by CLIVAR and the
WMO Commission for Climatology to provide a firm
scientific base for making assessments on the current rate
of global climate change and its manifestations at the
regional level.
B. Activities related to the implementation of
the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
20. GEF is to provide new and additional grant and
concessional funding to meet the agreed incremental costs
of measures to achieve agreed global environmental
benefits in climate change. The GEF operational strategy
provides three categories of activities in the area of climate
change: (a) long-term measures; (b) enabling activities; and
(c) short-term mitigation projects.
21. Long-term measures include three operational
programmes: (a) removing barriers to energy conservation
and energy efficiency; (b) promoting the adoption of
renewable energy by removing barriers and reducing
implementation costs; and (c) reducing the long-term costs
of low greenhouse gas-emitting energy technology.
Enabling activities specific to support national
communications include stage I adaptation activities under
the Convention. Short-term mitigation projects are intended
to facilitate reductions in greenhouse gas emission in the
short term.
22. Enabling activities in small island developing States
financed by GEF include one regional project on regional
planning for adaptation to climate change. This project
supports countries in preparing to cope with adverse effects
of climate change, particularly sea level rise. GEF funds
granted for enabling activities in small island developing
States totalled US$ 12.42 million as of December 1997. It
is worth mentioning that some small island developing
States participate in a number of global projects on enabling
activities, such as the Global Change System for Analysis,
Research and Training; climate change capacity-building;
country case studies on climate change impacts and
adaptation assessment, phase I, implemented by UNEP; and
a project on capacity-building and infrastructure concerning
participation in the assessment, methodology-development
and other activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, implemented by UNEP in collaboration
with the IPCC secretariat. GEF has also provided funding
to small island developing States in the area of
environmentally sound energy development totalling US$
7.1 million, which has subsequently leveraged more than
US$ 60 million.
23. Under the coordination of SPREP, Pacific island
countries are participating in and contributing to
international programmes, such as a Pacific ENSO centre,
an atmospheric radiation measurement project and a South
Pacific sea level rise monitoring project.
C. Monitoring activities
24. A number of monitoring programmes are directed to
establishing signals of climate change and to providing the
missing gaps in the understanding of the physics of
atmosphere-land-ocean-ice interactions. For example, the
Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) is designed to
monitor the present nature of the oceans, forecast how its
conditions may change and provide the underpinning
climate change forecasts. The climate component of GOOS
is the ocean component of the Global Climate Observing
System. Under the GOOS umbrella, sea level is measured
by a global array of 300 time gauges deployed by individual
nations in coastal regions on islands and in the open ocean.
These are managed through the Global Sea-level Observing
System (GLOSS). The GLOSS database shows that in many
places around the world, sea level is rising in agreement
with IPCC predictions, and satellite measurements confirm
those findings. The present rise in sea level is due chiefly
to thermal expansion of the upper ocean, apparently caused
by global warming. The rise will continue as warm water
from the surface sinks to warm the deeper layers of the
ocean. Overall, a rise of some 50 cm over the next 50 years
is predicted by IPCC.
25. The WMO Global Climate Monitoring System is
providing synthesized information on the state of the
climate system and diagnostic insights into significant
large-scale anomalies with regional and global
consequences. This particular project has enhanced
predictions of ENSO events, and should provide a basis for
understanding the impact of climate change for small island
developing States in terms of the frequency, intensity and
impact of ENSO events.
V. Recommendations for future action
A. At the national level
26. All the above considerations, in particular adaptation
strategies relating to climate change and sea level rise,
should be incorporated in long-term development planning
processes.
27. Adequate human resources and institutional capacity
should be built to absorb and adapt the findings of current
projects on planning for adaptation to climate change and
sea level rise currently under implementation in some small
island developing States, and preventive and remedial
measures should be taken in order to minimize and mitigate
the impacts of climate change and sea level rise.
B. At the regional level
28. Effective institutional capacity should be established
for all small island developing States regions to undertake
activities related to the modalities of effective and efficient
adaptation to climate change and sea level rise. Where such
capacity exists, it needs to be further strengthened.
29. Projects on planning for adaptation to climate change
should be implemented in all small island developing States
regions, with the provision to sustain them on a long-term
basis, and help should be provided to develop the scientific
and technical capacity of small island developing States to
formulate and implement effective strategies and policies
to minimize or mitigate the impacts of climate change and
sea level rise. Where such activities have been initiated,
they must be sustained.
C. At the international level
30. Further research should be facilitated on the regional
and temporal responses of sea level rise, taking account, if
possible, of changes in the frequency, intensity and location
of higher-frequency and smaller-scale phenomena.
31. Further research should be facilitated on the
contributions of ice sheets, glaciers and land and ground
water storage to sea level change.
32. Adequate financial and technical assistance should
be provided to help small island developing States to build
human-resource and institutional capacity at the national
and regional levels for coping with the impacts of climate
change and sea level rise.
33. The resources of the relevant regional small island
developing States institutions responsible for implementing
projects on adaptation to climate change and sea level rise
should be supplemented, as necessary.
34. The establishment of an observing system for
generating data sets to improve model predictions of
climate change and to help direct future impacts on small
island developing States should be facilitated. Such a
system should include:
(a) A high-accuracy altimeter to measure spatial
variations and monitor temporal variability and trends in
sea level rise;
(b) Sufficient (about 30) open-ocean gauges to
monitor and eliminate trends in the altimeter;
(c) A globally distributed set of gauges for
sampling at the margin of the altimeter (including coastal
regions and high latitudes);
(d) Geodetic positioning to improve reference levels
of in situ gauges;
(e) Improvements in the World Weather Watch
Network to address small island developing States
meteorological data gaps.
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Date last posted: 8 December 1999 15:15:30
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