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E/CN.17/1997/2/Add.4 |
Economic and Social Council
Distr. GENERAL
24 January 1997
ORIGINAL: ENGLISH
COMMISSION ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Fifth session
7-25 April 1997
Overall progress achieved since the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development
Report of the Secretary-General
Addendum
Demographic dynamics and sustainability *
(Chapter 5 of Agenda 21)
(* The report was prepared by the United Nations Population Fund
(UNFPA) as task manager for chapter 5 of Agenda 21, in accordance with
arrangements agreed to by the Inter-agency Committee on Sustainable
Development (IACSD). It is the result of consultations and
information exchange between United Nations agencies, international
and national organizations, interested government agencies and non-
governmental organizations.)
CONTENTS
Paragraphs Page
INTRODUCTION ................................................ 1 2
I. OBJECTIVES ............................................ 2 2
II. DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND ................................ 3 - 9 2
III. PROGRESS ACHIEVED ..................................... 10 - 19 5
IV. PROMISING CHANGES ..................................... 20 - 22 7
V. UNFULFILLED EXPECTATIONS .............................. 23 - 25 8
VI. EMERGING PRIORITIES ................................... 26 - 28 9
VII. CONCLUSIONS ........................................... 29 - 30 9
INTRODUCTION
1. This report reviews progress made in the implementation of the
objectives set out in chapter 5 of Agenda 21 (Demographic dynamics and
sustainability), 1/ taking into account the decisions taken by the
Commission on Sustainable Development on this subject at its third and
fourth sessions. As Task Manager for chapter 5 of Agenda 21
(Demographic dynamics and sustainability), the United Nations
Population Fund (UNFPA) prepared reports for the Commission on
Sustainable Development at its third and fourth sessions on progress
being made in the implementation of the aims set out in the chapter.
Among other things, the reports described some salient features of the
global and regional demographic landscape and noted the increase in
general awareness of the vital links between population and the
environment. The reports focused on actions taken by Governments in
support of population and sustainable development policies and
programmes and activities of non-governmental organizations and the
United Nations system as follow-up to chapter 5 of Agenda 21 and
chapter 3 of the Programme of Action of the International Conference
on Population and Development (Interrelationships between population,
sustained economic growth and sustainable development). 2/
I. OBJECTIVES
2. In chapter 5 of Agenda 21, the programme areas reflect three key
objectives:
(a) Developing and disseminating knowledge concerning the links
between demographic trends and factors and sustainable development;
(b) Formulating integrated national policies for environment and
development, taking into account demographic trends and factors;
(c) Implementing integrated environment and development
programmes at the local level, taking into account demographic trends
and factors.
II. DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND
3. The latest United Nations projections of world population 3/ into
the early decades of the twenty-first century show a marked slowing of
population growth, as compared with similar projections for the same
time periods made in the year of the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (table 1). The world population is now
projected to become 6.1 billion in 2000 and grow to 7.7 billion in
2020, figures that are, respectively, 137 million and 378 million
lower than had been projected in 1992. Of particular significance is
the projected slowing of the rate at which the population is expected
to grow, a pattern that is found in all regions of the world. The
figures of the 1996 Revision are lower than those projected in 1992,
owing to an assumed faster decline of fertility rates in a number of
developing countries, notably in South-central Asia and sub-Saharan
Africa. Fertility is now estimated to have significantly declined in
Bangladesh, Co^te d'Ivoire, India, Kenya, Myanmar, Pakistan, the
Syrian Arab Republic and Turkey. Another factor in the reduction of
the expected growth rate in the less developed regions is the higher
mortality in countries affected by wars (Burundi, Iraq, Liberia,
Rwanda) or by the spread of AIDS. In terms of the sustainability of
the world's environmental resource base, however, the annual increase
in absolute numbers is very important. For instance, in spite of
clear signs that the fertility transition has started in sub-Saharan
Africa, current levels of fertility in most countries of the region
remain high and in 17 countries are equal to or exceed six births per
woman, showing little or no sign of decrease. Hence, since the annual
increments to the population of the developing world will continue to
be significant (77 million per annum between now and the year 2020),
the environmental implications remain far-reaching for many low-income
countries, particularly those in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa,
where land degradation and deforestation are most severe.
Table 1. Projected population and annual growth rates for
regions of the world, */ 2000, 2010 and 2020
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Region Numbers in 000s Annual growth (%)
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2000 2010 2020 2000-2010 2010-2020
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1992 Revision
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Africa 856154 1116253 1421053 2.7 2.4
Asia 3691578 4213571 4688641 1.3 1.1
Europe 523749 536253 541798 0.2 0.1
Latin America 522962 600380 670721 1.4 1.1
North America 305881 330298 351812 0.8 0.6
Oceania 30967 35366 39501 1.3 1.1
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World 6228254 7149506 8049940 1.4 1.2
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1996 Revision
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Africa 819910 1051896 1316839 2.5 2.2
Asia 3688535 4160878 4590782 1.2 1.0
Europe 729328 722255 709371 -0.1 -0.2
Latin America 514688 589301 658496 1.4 1.1
North America 308636 332035 357765 0.7 0.7
Oceania 30253 34411 38671 1.3 1.2
----------------------------------------------------------
World 6091351 6890775 7671924 1.2 1.1
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Source: For 1992, World Population Prospects: The 1992 Revision
(United Nations publication, Sales No. E.93.XIII.7); for 1996, United
Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision (United
Nations publication, to be issued).
*/ The regional totals in the 1992 Revision do not add up to the
world total. This is because the world total includes the former
USSR, which is not shown separately here. For the 1996 Revision the
population of the former USSR is included partly in Asia and partly in
Europe.
4. Urbanization has become a dominant trend in the growth and
distribution of the population. In 1950, only 29 per cent of the
world population lived in urban areas. In 1994, the proportion was
estimated to be 45 per cent. This urban population is growing three
times faster than its rural counterpart. By 2005, half of the world
population are expected to be urban dwellers. The development and
environmental implications are profound, as urban authorities strive
to meet infrastructure and basic services, such as housing, energy,
water, sewage disposal, transportation and general utilities.
5. The impact of urbanization is most marked in the largest cities.
Of the 15 largest urban agglomerations in 1950, 4 were in developing
countries (Shanghai, Buenos Aires, Calcutta and Beijing). In 1994, 11
of the 15 were located in developing countries that are already facing
severe problems related to urban degradation, industrial pollution,
waste generation and general congestion. These cities include Sþo
Paulo, Mexico City, Beijing, Calcutta, Jakarta and Rio de Janeiro. By
2015, 13 of the 15 will be in developing countries: 10 in Asia, 2 in
Latin America and 1 in Africa. Only two of the largest cities (Tokyo
and New York) will be located in developed countries.
6. Despite the increasing difficulties in improving or even
maintaining living conditions in the biggest cities, migration
movements continue. Both internal migration and international
migration are driven by population growth and by inequities within and
between countries. The combination of poverty, rapid population
growth and environmental damage is a powerful destabilizing factor
driving urban growth. This is most marked in parts of Africa but can
also be seen in South Asia and some Latin American countries. Thus,
continuing high levels of in-migration, particularly in areas with
high population densities, contribute to and intensify urban
environmental stress.
7. According to the Programme of Action of the International
Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994), 2/ action or
inaction by the world community will determine how many people will
inhabit the earth and share its finite resources in the decades ahead.
To achieve early population stabilization, the Conference
recommendations must be implemented immediately.
8. The Programme of Action is based on the premise that sustainable
development can only be achieved by broadening the options and choices
available to individual women and men. In particular, chapter 4,
Gender equality, equity and empowerment of women, states that the
emancipation and empowerment of women is both an important end in
itself and an indispensable condition for sustainable development.
Unless gender inequality and inequity are reduced, all other goals of
the Conference are likely to go unfulfilled. Moreover, the Programme
of Action is committed to improving the quality of life by focusing on
three interdependent goals: reductions in infant, child and maternal
mortality; expanded access to education, particularly for women and
girls; and universal access to primary health care, including
reproductive health and family planning services.
9. The success of future local and global environmental actions will
be closely linked to the degree of success in implementing the
Programme of Action. It is important to recognize that the Conference
built on the consensus adopted at the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development and the World Conference on Human Rights
(Vienna, 1993) and anticipated many of the themes dealt with at the
World Summit for Social Development (Copenhagen, 1995), the Fourth
World Conference on Women (Beijing, 1995), the United Nations
Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II) (Istanbul, 1996) and the
World Food Summit (Rome, 1996).
III. PROGRESS ACHIEVED
10. Although the linkages between population and the environment had
been recognized prior to the United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development (Rio de Janeiro, 1992), the Conference has itself led
to a sharper focus on the issues and a set of recommendations for
dealing with them. National and global concern about the interactions
between population, resources and environment has grown considerably.
Moreover, the International Conference on Population and Development
referred to and reinforced the concerns in chapter 5 of Agenda 21 by
noting the complex interrelationships between population, sustained
economic growth, poverty and the environment. Chapter 3 of the
Programme of Action urges that population factors - including not only
population growth and age structure but also distribution, migration
and reproductive health - be integrated into planning for sustainable
development and a healthy environment. The significant influence of
the status of women and girls on factors important to demographic
transition and to the achievement of sustainable development is also
emphasized, as is the involvement of women in population and
environmental decision-making at all levels.
11. At the international level, discussions of environment and
population issues raised at the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development have continued. Several regional
conferences were organized in 1992 and 1993 focusing on the theme of
population and sustainable development. For instance, the Bali
Declaration, in Asia and the Pacific, and the Amman Declaration, in
the Arab States, have both underscored the interconnectedness of
population factors and environmental protection. The same theme was
conveyed in the South Pacific by the Port Vila Declaration, which
emphasizes that despite the differing circumstances of the small
island developing States, all countries and territories mutually share
a strong affinity with and dependence on land and ocean resources for
their livelihood. Those resources have been under increasing pressure
due to continuing population growth, expanding economic activities and
natural disasters.
12. In Latin America and the Caribbean, on the other hand, attention
was called to the fragile ecosystems in the rural areas that are
continually endangered by the rapid expansion of human settlements.
In Africa, a strategic framework of action to enable countries to
address the problem of eradicating poverty through sound environmental
management was developed by Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).
Among the strategic areas identified were managing demographic change
and pressures, achieving self-sufficiency and food security, and
ensuring efficient and equitable use of water resources. At the 1993
European Population Conference, on the other hand, the main issues
considered were population growth, age structure and international
migration.
13. Both the Conferences in Rio de Janeiro and Cairo gave greater
attention and visibility to the linkages between population growth and
the environment, which has also been reflected in reports at the
country level. For example, Nigeria has reported that its high
population growth rate has led to an unacceptable level of natural
resource extraction, thus defeating attempts to achieve
sustainability. Likewise, Burkina Faso's high population growth rate
has been correlated with the increasing rate of water extraction and
the subsequent decline in water quality and quantity. In China,
despite a decreasing population growth rate, the increasing increments
in population size and soil erosion have led to a continuous decline
in the amount of arable land per capita. In Bangladesh, the rapid
increase in urban population was primarily caused by the heavy flow of
rural migrants to urban areas in search of work and the inability of
the rural areas to absorb and sustain further population increase.
This phenomenon has put severe stress on the ability of municipalities
to provide basic infrastructure and services, such as safe water,
sewerage, sanitation and transportation.
14. A number of developed countries and economies in transition have
similar problems. In Australia, urban migration and urban development
have posed difficulties with regard to the treatment and disposal of
sewage, industrial effluent associated with manufacturing processes
and solid waste. Likewise, suburban sprawl, which has led to
increased consumption of fossil fuel through extended commuting,
disturbs the fragile ecosystems and permanently removes prime arable
land from agricultural production. In other industrialized countries,
particularly in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent
States, attention has been focused on the degradation of the
environment and its subsequent impact on the health of the population.
15. In general, however, most countries recognize that the linkages
between population and environment are not always clear and are often
intricate and complex. In fact, the complexity of the interface has
made it difficult to put into operation and translate the concepts
into concrete plans and action programmes. Thus, a carefully targeted
training programme to upgrade national skills in sustainable
development planning and the development of better integrative
methodologies are essential. Towards this end, efforts by the United
Nations system have been put into training and developing
methodologies and analytical tools to enhance understanding of the
interactions between population and environment variables. For
instance, the courses offered under the UNFPA Global Programme of
Training in Population and Sustainable Development include population
dynamics and environmental issues, decentralized planning, research
techniques and computer training. The five institutions at which
training is taking place are located in various regions of the
developing world: Africa, Arab States, Asia and Latin America.
Likewise, as discussed in the report on promoting education, public
awareness and training (E/CN.17/1997/2/Add.26), UNESCO is increasingly
emphasizing, in addition to basic education, population education and
education for sustainable development.
16. Many countries have attributed the difficulty of integrating
population and environment concerns into national planning and local
programming to lack of data; lack of a critical mass of appropriately
trained technical staff; and lack of guidelines. In response to these
concerns, UNFPA country support teams are providing critical support
to national Governments in collecting data on population and
environment and training national staff on methodologies and
techniques in integrating population and environmental variables into
development programmes. Also, in response to the last concern, UNFPA,
in collaboration with the World Conservation Union (IUCN), has
prepared a guidebook emphasizing the integration of the
population/resource balance in sectoral planning exercises. It is
particularly useful to local planning units and national planning
ministries in developing countries.
17. Central to the integration of population factors into sustainable
development policy and programme formulation is the provision of
reliable and timely information relevant to population and environment
decision-making. Thus, the CELADE regional population database for
Latin America and the Caribbean (DOCPAL) has been a useful source of
information, providing a number of services, including access to
national databases on CD-ROM. The scope of DOCPAL has been expanded
to cover population and environment information.
18. A number of computer-aided tools are being developed to integrate
population and environment information. CELADE is developing a
microcomputer-based tool to help such integration. On the other hand,
the focus of the database for population and research (PRED Bank 2.0)
is the interrelationship between population pressure and land use in
rural areas. The programme was designed by the Population Division of
the United Nations Secretariat as part of the Integrated Software
Package for Geographical Information, Maps and Graphics (POPMAP).
These tools are designed to be of assistance to planners at the
national and local levels, particularly in improving the basis for
decision-making by officials responsible for implementing population
and environment policies and programmes.
19. Overall, what the two Conferences have achieved is a consensus
that, although population growth is but one of many factors that
undermine the environmental resource base upon which sustainable
development ultimately depends, it is a significant factor. It is now
widely acknowledged that population policies and programmes can have
beneficial effects on the environment and overall development. High
population growth rates make it more difficult for countries to
channel adequate investments to the social sector and to expand basic
infrastructure. The challenge of the Conferences remains how to
reduce both unsustainable consumption and production patterns and the
negative impacts of demographic factors on the environment.
IV. PROMISING CHANGES
20. Population and gender issues and their relationship to sustainable
development figured prominently in the Conference in Rio de Janeiro
and Cairo. Since then, more attention has been given to the critical
role of women in population and environment programmes and in
achieving sustainable development. Both chapter 5 of Agenda 21 and
chapter 3 of the Programme of Action stress that the empowerment of
women is essential and that improving the status of women - through
better access to education, reproductive health services, including
family planning and sexual health, and jobs - is an end itself and
will yield high returns in terms of sustainable development.
21. Women grow a substantial proportion of the world's food,
particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America and the
Caribbean. There is considerable evidence that their labour-intensive
food production practices tend to be more environmentally sound than
others and could help to protect the resource base.
22. Throughout the developing world, women have demonstrated that they
can make vital contributions to resource management and conservation.
In India and China, for example, women have developed traditional
methods designed to conserve the soil. Similarly, in Nepal, women
have been responsible for reforestation of denuded slopes, greatly
reducing soil erosion. 4/ As resource managers, women in developing
countries perform various roles: as providers of food, fuel, fodder
and water; as caretakers of their family's health, by maintaining
sanitary conditions around the house and by safely disposing of
household wastes; and as conservationists, by safeguarding forests,
soil, water and grazing areas. Thus, since the two Conferences, there
are positive indications that in many parts of the developing world,
the vital role of women as agents of change and as managers of both
environment and reproduction has been duly recognized.
V. UNFULFILLED EXPECTATIONS
23. Despite the progress made since the two Conferences, particularly
in raising the awareness of population and environment issues, much
remains to be done. Although countries acknowledge that it is
necessary to integrate population and environmental considerations,
doing so has been difficult. Some constraining factors are inadequate
data, insufficient trained human resources and lack of financial
resources. Population and environment issues are so intertwined that
piecemeal solutions will not suffice.
24. Sufficient funding should be made available for policy-oriented
research focusing on priority environmental problems, particularly in
developing countries where demographic pressure upon the natural
resource base is increasing. For instance, there is need to identify
ecologically endangered areas where overexploitation of natural
resources and rapid population growth create serious problems:
forested uplands, coastal fishing areas, small-holder agriculture in
lowland areas, arid grazing lands and tropical forests.
25. Moreover, it is equally important to undertake research on
populations at risk due to environmental degradation. Priority
research 5/ should focus on: coastal areas where populations are
growing rapidly and critical resources are being depleted at an
accelerated rate, such as on highly urbanized coasts; soil erosion and
desertification, linked with inappropriate land-use practices often
brought on by migration patterns; water scarcity, and misuse and
pollution of water resources in both rural and urban areas; and
deforestation resulting from inappropriate shifting cultivation
patterns, fuelwood demands, and conversion of forests in upland areas
to other uses, linked with demographic pressures among the poorest
groups in society.
VI. EMERGING PRIORITIES
26. The need to address the interrelationships between changes in the
environment and migration has emerged as a global concern, given the
number of persons displaced by environmental degradation. According
to the International Organization for Migration, it is estimated that
in 1996, 25 million persons are environmentally displaced worldwide. 6/
In fact, the number of people at risk of environmental displacement is
bound to grow. In Kenya, as a consequence of the current
desertification and soil degradation processes, the country will
almost certainly produce large numbers of environmentally displaced
persons. The case of Kazakstan and Uzbekistan, on the other hand, is
illustrative of severe environmental deterioration that has led to
mounting pressures towards mass migration. 7/ In general, most of the
environmentally displaced persons live in the African Sahel, the Horn
of Africa, other parts of sub-Saharan Africa, the South Asian
subcontinent, Mexico and China. The majority of these areas are also
characterized by relatively rapid population growth.
27. Environmentally induced migrations are caused by natural
disasters, such as earthquakes, flash flooding, typhoons, and volcanic
eruptions; by nuclear and hazardous waste contamination; by
agricultural and rural decline, resource pollution, chronic water
shortages; or by dam construction and other large-scale development
projects. On the other hand, environmental problems associated with
mass migration could include deforestation, soil erosion and water
contamination or depletion. Very often, large-scale and sudden
movements into areas of already declining environmental and
socio-economic conditions lead to a reduction in migrants' well-being;
damage to the natural resource base on which the local economy
depends; economic and political difficulties for the host areas; and
erosion of efforts made by Governments and the international community
to support sustainable development in both areas of origin and host
areas.
28. There is an urgent need to respond to the twin challenge of
preventing population movements triggered by environmental damage and
mitigating the damage caused by mass migrations. Efforts should be
made to apply existing scientific and technological potential in order
to prevent situations that often lead to population displacements.
VII. CONCLUSIONS
29. Although there has been increased awareness of the importance of
demographic trends and factors to achieving sustainable development
since the Conferences in Rio de Janeiro and Cairo, much remains to be
done to achieve the goals and recommendations of Agenda 21 and of the
Programme of Action. Many countries are still experiencing
difficulties in integrating population and environmental concerns into
national and local development programming efforts. Inadequate data,
lack of trained human resources and financial constraints have
hampered such efforts. In addition, national population and
sustainable development policies need to be broadened and linked with
efforts in the area of health, including reproductive health,
education, condition of women, poverty reduction and the environment.
30. Addressing the concerns of population, environment and sustainable
development will require further collaboration and coordination, at
both the national and international levels. Efforts should continue
to enhance the full participation of all relevant groups, especially
women, at all levels of population and environmental decision-making.
Also essential are support to strengthen national capacity and
capability in the fields of population and environment, development of
relevant information systems, research and training, and financial
resource mobilization.
Notes
1/ Report of the United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development, vol. I, Resolutions Adopted by the Conference (United
Nations publication, Sales No. E.93.I.8 and corrigendum), resolution
1, annex II.
2/ See "Report of the International Conference on Population and
Development, Cairo, 5-13 September 1994" (A/CONF.171/13), chap. I,
resolution 1, annex.
3/ World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision, Annex I:
Demographic indicators (United Nations publication, to be issued).
4/ UNFPA, Safeguarding the Future (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.89.III.H.2), p. 29.
5/ See UNFPA, Population, Resources and the Environment: The
Critical Challenges (New York: UNFPA, 1991), pp. 115-117.
6/ "Report of the International Symposium on Environmentally-
induced Population Displacements and Environmental Impacts Resulting
from Mass Migrations, Geneva, 21-24 April 1996", p. 15.
7/ Ibid., p. 37.
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Date last posted: 10 December 1999 17:25:35
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