| United Nations |
|
E/CN.17/1995/15 |
Economic and Social Council
Distr. GENERAL
22 March 1995
ORIGINAL: ENGLISH
COMMISSION ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Third session
11-28 April 1995
Item 3 of the provisional agenda*
* E/CN.17/1995/1.
GENERAL DISCUSSION ON PROGRESS IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AGENDA 21,
FOCUSING ON CROSS-SECTORAL COMPONENTS OF AGENDA 21 AND THE
CRITICAL ELEMENTS OF SUSTAINABILITY
Demographic dynamics and sustainability
Report of the Secretary-General
CONTENTS
Paragraphs Page
INTRODUCTION ............................................... 1 - 16 2
I. GENERAL OVERVIEW ..................................... 17 - 28 4
II. REVIEW OF PROGRESS ................................... 29 - 59 7
A. Country experiences .............................. 29 - 55 7
B. Major groups and non-governmental organizations .. 56 - 59 11
III. FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY ............................... 60 - 70 12
IV. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ............................ 71 - 108 13
V. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS FOR ACTION ................. 109 - 110 21
A. Conclusions ...................................... 109 21
B. Proposals for action ............................. 110 21
INTRODUCTION
1. The present document reports on progress in the implementation of the
aims set out in chapter 5 of Agenda 21 (Demographic dynamics and
sustainability) 1/ and presents a set of recommendations for action. The
report was prepared by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) as task
manager for chapter 5 of Agenda 21, in consultation with the United Nations
Secretariat, in accordance with arrangements agreed to by the Inter-Agency
Committee on Sustainable Development at its fourth session. It is the result
of consultations and information exchanges between designated focal points in
19 United Nations agencies, governmental officials and a number of other
institutions and individuals.
2. The implications for the environment and sustainable development of a
rapidly rising world population and other demographic trends, along with
consumption and production patterns, have been discussed at international
forums for at least two decades. Only in recent years, however, has the
international community agreed on a comprehensive series of common objectives
and action recommendations for dealing with these issues.
3. A beginning was made with the decisions taken at the 1972 United Nations
Conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm. At the United Nations
population conferences held in 1974 and 1984, recommendations on environment
and development issues were included in the outcomes but would not appear to
have been given high priority in subsequent years.
4. An important milestone was passed in 1987 with the publication of Our
Common Future, 2/ the report of the World Commission on Environment and
Development, which observed that sustainable development could only be
achieved if population size and growth were in harmony with the changing
productive potential of the ecosystem.
5. The International Forum on Population in the Twenty-First Century, which
in 1989 adopted the Amsterdam Declaration on a Better Life for Future
Generations, 3/ acknowledged the inextricable linkages between population,
resources and the environment and the need to bring about a sustainable
relationship between human numbers, resources and development.
6. The 1990 report of the South Commission 4/ found that current population
trends, if not modified, would have negative implications for the South's
ability to achieve development and environmental security in the twenty-first
century.
7. Finally, in 1992 the United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development adopted Agenda 21. Chapter 5 addressed the connections between
demographic dynamics and sustainability and provided the most extensive set of
recommendations on these issues ever agreed by the international community.
8. The chapter contains three programme areas:
(a) Developing and disseminating knowledge concerning the links between
demographic trends and sustainable development;
(b) Formulating integrated national policies for environment and
development, taking into account demographic trends and factors;
(c) Implementing integrated environment and development programmes at
the local level, taking into account demographic trends and factors.
9. The new salience given to the population/environment/development linkage
in chapter 5 of Agenda 21 was carried forward into the Programme of Action
adopted by the International Conference on Population and Development, held in
September 1994 in Cairo. 5/
10. During preparations for the Conference, a new approach for dealing with
population issues evolved, based on the global community's growing
appreciation of the linkages between human development, environmental
protection and the empowerment of women.
11. According to the Preamble of the Programme of Action, the 1994
conference
was explicitly given a broader mandate on development issues than
previous population conferences, reflecting the growing awareness that
population, poverty, patterns of production and consumption and the
environment are so closely interconnected that none of them can be
considered in isolation. 6/
12. The Programme of Action covers the period until 2015. It reflects the
conviction that, to improve people's quality of life and health, developing
countries need sustained economic growth within the context of sustainable
development, and there must be investments in health and education, especially
for girls. The Programme of Action strongly maintains that there can be no
sustainable development without the full and equal participation of women in
all aspects of development planning and programming. It contains goals and
recommendations for the reduction of infant, child and maternal mortality;
advances in education; and universal access to reproductive health care,
including family planning, by the year 2015. The Programme of Action
recognizes that investments in health and education are essential if
population stabilization and a balance between population and resources are to
be achieved.
13. The Programme of Action is thus about the improvement of the quality of
life of all members of the human family. It is about broader choice. It is
about better health and better education: it is about strengthening the
family as the basic unity of society; and it is about equity and equality for
women. It is also about the prospects for sustained and sustainable
development and about the sort of future coming generations will inherit.
14. Chapter III of the Programme of Action calls on Governments, with the
support of the international community and regional and subregional
organizations, to formulate and implement population policies and programmes
to support the objectives and actions agreed upon in Agenda 21 and other
conferences and other international environmental agreements, taking into
account the common but differentiated responsibilities reflected in these
agreements. The chapter has three programme areas: integrating population
and development strategies; population, sustained economic growth and poverty;
and population and environment.
15. Chapter 5 of Agenda 21 and the Programme of Action together form the
most compelling and comprehensive account so far of what needs to be done
about the interface between population, environment and sustainable
development. The two documents refer to and reinforce each other.
16. In this report, therefore, the activities outlined in the relevant
sections of Agenda 21 and the Programme of Action are seen as parts of a
continuous process. While Agenda 21 contains the initial statement of intent,
the Programme of Action may be seen in part as a reaffirmation and a follow-up
to Agenda 21 and a historic breakthrough for the population and development
component of sustainable development.
I. GENERAL OVERVIEW
17. The current demographic situation displays a world of considerable
disparity at various levels. From the global point of view there are many
encouraging signs. After having reached an average annual peak of
2.04 per cent in the years 1965-1970, world population growth declined
steadily and is expected to reach a level of 1.57 per cent annually in the
years 1990-1995, according to the United Nations median variant. Less
encouraging, however, is the seemingly inexorable march of the population
momentum which ensures that the number of people being added to the world's
population is still rising and is now approaching 90 million annually. The
annual increment is not likely to peak before 1998, after which the high
number of youth in the developing world will allow it to decline only very
slowly for some time to come.
18. At the regional level, the population growth picture becomes more varied
(see the table below). After a decline during the first half of the 1980s,
the population growth rate of the least developed countries actually increased
during the second half of the decade. In some parts of sub-Saharan Africa the
rate of growth has never ceased to increase, and at present growth levels the
population of some of those countries (which are among the poorest) will
double in about 20 years. In Central and South America the growth rate has
decreased steadily as it did in the Caribbean until the mid-1970s, after which
it began to increase (albeit very slowly). With one or two exceptions,
however, all regions and subregions of the world are projected to have a
declining growth rate in the future. Many industrialized countries are
already experiencing negative growth rates and are expected to continue to do
so.
Table. Annual rate of population growth, by region
(Percentage, medium variant)
______________________________________________________________________________
Major area 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010-
and region 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
______________________________________________________________________________
World total 1.96 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.57 1.49 1.37 1.29 1.20
More 0.81 0.67 0.56 0.58 0.40 0.32 0.25 0.21 0.18
developed
regions
Less 2.37 2.08 2.09 2.06 1.88 1.78 1.63 1.52 1.41
developed
regions
Least 2.47 2.57 2.44 2.55 2.82 2.74 2.52 .40 2.28
developed
regions
Africa 2.56 2.78 2.86 2.84 2.81 2.66 2.56 2.47 2.37
Asia 2.27 1.87 1.89 1.86 1.64 1.55 1.38 1.26 1.15
Europe 0.60 0.49 0.38 0.43 0.15 0.08 0.00 -0.03 -0.06
Latin America 2.44 2.28 2.11 1.97 1.84 1.67 1.50 1.34 1.20
North America 1.10 1.07 0.93 0.98 1.05 0.90 0.81 0.78 0.78
Oceania 2.09 1.13 1.50 1.55 1.54 1.42 1.31 1.24 1.18
______________________________________________________________________________
Source: World Population Prospects: 1994 Revision (United Nations
publication forthcoming).
19. The Programme of Action indicates that we have a choice as to how many
people will inhabit the earth in the decades ahead. The choice is essentially
between a world population in the year 2015 of 7.1 billion or of 7.8 billion,
or somewhere in between. The difference between the high and the low
projections for the year 2015 is 720 million, which is approximately the
present population of Africa. In the year 2050 the difference between the
high (11.9 billion) and the low (7.9 billion) projections is a staggering
4 billion, which is about 70 per cent of the present world population, whose
impact on the environment is already causing great concern.
20. In many parts of the developing world, where people are facing the most
difficult problems, considerable improvement has taken place during the past
25 years. Fertility levels and crude death rates have declined, and life
expectancy at birth has increased by nearly 20 per cent, from 52 years in 1969
to 62 years today. Overall, the health of women and children is improving,
and contraceptive prevalence has increased from around 14 per cent in 1960-
1965 to around 57 per cent of women of reproductive age in 1994.
21. Considerable progress has been made in reducing both mortality and
fertility rates. Mortality rates have improved in nearly all parts of the
world, especially in Northern Africa, Western Asia and South America, where
infant mortality rates were reduced by more than half. Mortality indicators
show, however, that the gap between industrialized and developing countries
has widened during the past two decades. And in some areas of the developing
world the positive trend of the 1970s has slowed and was even reversed in the
1980s, as the effects of the economic recession, the debt crisis, and
structural adjustment programmes began to be felt.
22. In the developing countries the total fertility rate decreased from
about 5.8 in the early 1970s to about 3.6 in the early 1990s. The greatest
reduction has taken place in East and South-east Asia and Latin America and
the Caribbean, and the least has occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where in some
countries the fertility rate has actually risen.
23. Few measures are more important to the success of population and
development policies than those aimed at the emancipation and empowerment of
women. Although progress has been made, various obstacles have combined to
defeat the initiatives aimed at improving the status of women. They include
certain traditional norms, low literacy rates and educational attainment among
girls and women, low priority given to women's issues by policy and decision
makers, and the relative weakness of institutions formed to advance the causes
of women.
24. Most reports emphasized the erosion of the traditional family unit.
Fewer marriages, increasing divorce rates, and rising numbers of female-headed
households were mentioned in a large number of reports from all parts of the
world. Changes to and the gradual erosion of traditional family structures
and practices caused many developing countries to express concern over the
number of elderly people who find themselves without care.
25. Migratory movements were mentioned in almost all national reports. The
magnitude of international migration and of rural-to-urban and other forms of
internal migration has reached unprecedented proportions. A highly visible
trend recorded in almost all developing countries is the massive migration to
one or two major cities. The reports identify five major causes of increasing
urbanization, all of which are about the search for better living conditions:
rural unemployment and underemployment; poor rural social services; lack of
arable land; natural disasters, particularly drought; and civil unrest.
26. The reports collectively suggest that population policies and programmes
contribute a great deal to socio-economic development and environmental
preservation. They also confirm that a range of complementary sustainable
development initiatives might greatly enhance the implementation of population
programmes. The growing recognition of these symbiotic relationships is being
gradually translated into policies, plans and programmes.
27. The integration of population concerns into environmental and
sustainable development planning nevertheless poses some special challenges.
Some of these relate to the planning process itself such as lack of clear
lines of responsibility and lack of focus in the national development plan.
Others include the difficulty involved in doing what to many is something
entirely new - namely, integrating cross-sectoral issues into a sectorally
based and structured planning system. Yet others stem from lack of data and
trained staff.
28. In general the reports indicate that the developing countries in
particular experience considerable difficulties in integrating population
concerns into their development and environment planning. Resource
constraints and institutional limitations quite clearly set limits to what can
be achieved during any given period of time. Awareness of the links between
population and sustainable development, however, is clearly growing in both
the public and private sectors.
II. REVIEW OF PROGRESS
A. Country experiences
29. Nearly all of the countries that submitted national reports on the
implementation of Agenda 21 referred to their national reports to the
International Conference on Population and Development, in which they had
discussed their implementation of chapter 5 of Agenda 21. The overview
provided here and the accounts of activities at the national level therefore
draw extensively on the national reports prepared for that Conference.
30. Of the 168 countries that submitted reports to the secretariat of the
International Conference on Population and Development, 125 were from
developing and 43 from industrialized countries.
31. The national reports contain little information about concrete
activities and projects aimed at further exploration and greater clarification
of the intricate relationships between demographic factors, sustainable
development and the environment. They do provide, however, information about
institutional developments and general policies and attitudes.
1. Developing countries
32. The accomplishments of the past two decades are the result of many
factors, not the least of which is a pronounced change by many Governments
from indifference to committed endorsement of population activities and
policies. This has been given concrete expression in the formation, where
none existed before, of central governmental institutions charged with the
implementation of comprehensive population policies and programmes. As many
as 98 per cent of the developing countries reported the existence of such
institutions, of which 77 per cent dealt exclusively with population issues,
either through a national population council or a ministry.
33. More attention is being paid to the need for integrating population
concerns into national planning systems. Although in the past many countries
included population variables in their five-year development plans, the
reports reveal that the steps taken to integrate population issues into other
levels of planning are of relatively recent origin in many countries.
34. Of the reports which addressed the issue, 94 per cent stated that
population concerns were incorporated into the overall development plan of
their respective countries. In the great majority of cases, however, the
population dimension was treated in very general terms. Only 17 per cent of
the reports made clear that population was integrated in the sectoral planning
processes, and only 8 per cent indicated that population issues had made it
into local- level planning.
35. Several countries (for example, India and Argentina) have decentralized
their planning systems to such an extent that population plans are almost
entirely the prerogative of local administrations. Other countries have
decentralized various elements of their population programmes.
36. Many countries indicated that, despite having a planning apparatus that
facilitates the integration of population concerns into national planning,
there is lack of functional integration. This is mainly attributed to lack of
data and insufficient analysis of existing data, lack of satisfactory
methodology for integration, lack of a critical mass of technical staff and of
staff commitment among the line ministries and departments to carry out the
tasks necessary for integration, and lack of resources. Of these, weaknesses
in data collection, analysis and research capacity were particularly stressed.
37. The attention currently paid to the relationship between population and
development sprang from a realization in many countries that population growth
is outpacing socio-economic development and that a balance between the two has
to be found. Low levels and rates of technological progress, combined with
rapid population growth, have been placing severe strains on social and
economic institutions and the carrying capacity of the natural environment.
38. The most frequently reported relationship (noted in 75 per cent of the
reports) is between population growth and general socio-economic development,
which includes rate of economic growth, general living standards, and equity.
In several cases population growth and the attendant demands for social
services, dwellings etc. exceed economic growth by a wide margin. In the
national report of Lesotho, for example, it is stated that per capita income
is likely to decrease significantly as a result of population growth because
even if the Government succeeds in raising investment levels to generate more
income and savings, the net effect will be overtaken by the sheer growth in
the number of people requiring social and other services.
39. The linkage between population growth and social services was of concern
to 63 per cent of the developing countries. Two African countries illustrate
the concern expressed by many. In Botswana, population growth in the years
1971-1991 led to a doubling of primary school enrolment, straining the
national education budget to its limits. In Burundi half-time schooling was
introduced to cope with the growing demand for basic education.
40. The third most frequently mentioned issue, referred to in 57 per cent of
the reports, was the linkage between population growth and natural
resources/land use. The loss of arable land stood out as perhaps the most
serious concern. Thus, in Lesotho between 1976 and 1994 arable land was
reduced from 13 per cent to 9 per cent of total land. High population growth
and more than a doubling of the population density (from 306 to 743 persons
per square km) led to a drastic conversion of farmland into human settlements.
Overgrazing and soil erosion also contributed to the loss of arable land.
41. The report from China provided another drastic example: rapid
population growth had led to a continuous decrease in the per capita share of
arable land. One third of the country's arable land was affected by soil
erosion, with a loss of 5 billion tons of top soil every year.
42. Two types of links involving the environment are particularly stressed
in the national reports. The first is that between production and the
environment; the second is that between urban migration/population density and
the environment. In 86 per cent of the reports from the developing countries,
production and the environment were singled out. Production was usually cited
as the cause of the depletion and/or degradation of natural resources and the
pollution of land, water, and air. Both agricultural and industrial processes
were included. In the report of the Philippines, urban industrial processing
was blamed for the pollution of water and air.
43. The linkage between urban migration/population density and the
environment was mentioned in 73 per cent of the reports. Very rarely was
population density mentioned apart from urbanization, which suggests that in
many cases population density is equated with urbanization. Some of the
effects of urbanization on the environment were destruction of natural
resources, pollution of adjacent rivers, and air and water pollution. The
report of Bangladesh stated that the rapid increase in urban population was
due mainly to the heavy flow of rural migrants to urban areas in search of
work and the inability of the rural areas to absorb and sustain further
population increase. The physical amenities of urban areas - e.g., sewerage,
water supply, transportation, sanitation - were unable to cope with the large
influx of population. Most of the urban and suburban areas were thus exposed
to heavy pollution.
44. In 41 per cent of the reports reference was made to the link between
population growth and its effects on the environment. According to the
Nigerian report, the country's high population growth rate was leading to
tolerable levels of the extraction of natural resources at an unacceptable
level, thus defeating attempts to achieve sustainability.
45. Although the national reports reveal that many aspects of the links
between population and development are not well understood, there was
widespread agreement that population policies and programmes can have
beneficial effects on development. Similarly, the reports generally recognize
that population interventions will be more successful if they are complemented
by a range of development policies and programmes. Many reports noted, for
example, that investments in primary health care and improvements in the
status and condition of women could have significant impact on total fertility
rates. A large number of reports cited the results of research on the impact
of female education on fertility rates.
46. Links between population and development are also perceived in terms of
the overall cost of development initiatives. Certain low-income countries are
beginning to look on population initiatives as cost-efficient means of
promoting development. In the view of quite a few countries, the savings that
resulted from population interventions were considered substantial because of
their comparatively low cost.
47. Pollution of land, air and water, especially from production processes;
soil erosion and land degradation; loss of biodiversity; and deforestation
emerged from the reports as the most salient problems. Resolving them will
require a better balance between population growth and distribution and the
natural carrying capacity of the land.
2. Developed countries
48. Having completed the demographic transition, the developed countries are
less concerned by overall population growth rates than by the age structure of
their populations. Thus the relationship between ageing and social
expenditures was mentioned in 79 per cent of the reports filed by 24 country
members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
According to the report of Japan, for example, the portion of its population
aged above 65 years had increased from 5 per cent in 1950 to 12 per cent in
1990 and was expected to increase to 26 per cent by the year 2025.
49. Another prominent issue in many developed countries is the relationship
between family policy, women in the workforce and fertility trends. The
Austrian report provides a good example of the problems involved. As in many
other developed countries, the fertility rate in Austria is below replacement
level, and the decline in the rate is seen in part as being due to the
increasing number of women who have joined the work force. The Government
thus introduced policies meant to help women combine careers with raising
families and distribute the burdens of house-keeping and child-raising more
equitably between the sexes. Other developed countries have introduced
similar policies.
50. Half of the reports from OECD countries mention the relationship between
immigration and social unrest. Only a third referred to the relationship
between environment and lifestyles/behaviour.
51. The link between production and environment was cited in 55 per cent of
the reports. Although consumption is presumably part of this set of issues,
only 25 per cent of reports referred to consumption as such. The report of
Australia made the point that small populations with high consumption levels
may have a greater impact on the environment than large populations with low
consumption levels. The report of Germany argued that major responsibility
for reducing global environmental damage lies with the developed countries,
mainly because of their high rates of production and consumption.
52. The links between urban migration/population density and the environment
were also mentioned in 55 per cent of the reports. The points made were much
the same as those made by the developing countries - namely, that urbanization
gives rise to waste disposal problems and pollution of various kinds and
removes prime arable land from agricultural production.
3. Countries with economies in transition
53. Some of the concerns identified by the developed countries were shared
by the countries with economies in transition - for example, the linkage
between population ageing and social expenditures and the linkage between
family policy, women in the workforce and fertility trends.
54. Two other linkages, reflecting the difficult economic changes taking
place in these countries, were mentioned by 86 per cent of them: the links
between economic performance and the well-being of the population, and between
economic performance, employment opportunities and migration patterns.
55. The relationship between environmental degradation and public health
also figured prominently. The report of Russia, for example, referred to the
effects of industrial contamination of the environment on paediatric mortality
and morbidity (especially childhood asthma). The reports of both Poland and
Russia saw the health of their industrial workers as a function of levels of
industrial pollution.
B. Major groups and non-governmental organizations
56. The recognition the non-governmental organization community received for
its contributions to the United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development process was translated into active and well organized
participation in the preparatory process for the International Conference on
Population and Development. Non-governmental organizations took part in all
the sessions of the Preparatory Committee and in regional preparatory
meetings. An NGO Planning Committee and its operating arm, the NGO Planning
Committee Secretariat, arranged and facilitated the participation of
non-governmental organizations in Cairo. Funding for these organizational
activities was obtained from Governments, foundations, United Nations agencies
and non-governmental organizations themselves. The number of non-governmental
organization representatives on national delegations was higher than at any
past United Nations conference. A total of 1,254, of which 153 were in
consultative status with the Economic and Social Council, received
accreditation from the United Nations to participate in the official
proceedings, and more than 4,200 participants from 138 countries partook in
Forum activities.
57. The Programme of Action in no small measure owes its overall advances to
the determined efforts and influence of the non-governmental organizations.
Women's health organizations were especially active in lobbying for a broader
definition of reproductive health and measures aimed at the empowerment of
women.
58. A rough division according to category of non-governmental organizations
present in Cairo reveals that some 87 were environmental and some 320 were
development. Others were more or less purely concerned with population,
women, youth. These numbers indicate a solid increase in non-governmental
organizations that include demographic factors in their activities, although
their main focus is not on population.
59. In both developing and industrialized countries, many of these
non-governmental organizations have significant programmes and projects in the
field of population, environment and sustainable development. Suffice it to
mention institutions such as the International Union for the Conservation of
Nature (IUCN), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA), the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
(IUSSP), the Sierra Club, the Audubon Society, the Environmental Defense
Fund ... A more extensive account of the activities of non-governmental
organizations in the field of population, environment, and sustainable
development will be presented in the report on chapter 5 to the next session
of the Commission.
III. FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY
60. The delegations at the Conference reached a general consensus on the
resources needed for an integrated programme for population and reproductive
health - one that includes family planning and other reproductive health
services, measures for preventing sexually transmitted diseases, HIV and AIDS,
and population data, policy and research. Agreement was possible because the
methods that generated the estimates were extensively reviewed by experts at
the Preparatory Committee and inter-sessional meetings leading up to the
Conference. This process resulted in resource projections significantly more
advanced than those discussed in earlier international forums.
61. The Programme of Action estimates that about $17 billion will be
required in the year 2000 from all sources - Governments, non-governmental
organizations, the private sector, and the international community. This
amount increases annually, reaching $21.7 billion by the year 2015.
62. These estimates suggest that globally about two thirds of the resources
required in the developing countries will still come from national sources.
They also suggest that by the year 2000 the annual support to population and
reproductive health programmes by the international community needed to
address national needs will be about $5.7 billion, rising in steps to about
$7.2 billion in 2015. This compares to the present level of about $1 billion
each to family planning and to other reproductive health programmes.
63. The magnitude and the rate of increase of the resources required vary
substantially between and within different subregions of the world. The
annual amount needed will have to increase rapidly in order to avoid delays in
implementation, which would lead to higher costs later.
64. The greatest proportional increases in resources, both in the near term
and over the next 20 years, will be needed in sub-Saharan Africa. It is there
that the greatest investments in the development of vital institutional
infrastructure will be required and where the constraints on domestic
resources are most severe. External assistance to sub-Saharan African
programmes will need to reach nearly $1.8 billion per year in the year 2000,
as compared to roughly $200 million-$250 million per year in the early 1990s.
Alone among the world subregions, the total annual resources required for
sub-Saharan African programmes will nearly double between the year 2000 and
the year 2015.
65. In the year 2000 it is estimated that the external assistance required
in the Asia and Pacific region will exceed $2.9 billion and that external
assistance requirements during the period 2000-2015 will remain fairly level,
at about $2.8 billion-$2.9 billion per annum.
66. In the Latin American region the needs for external resources between
2000 and 2015 are expected to remain stable at the level of roughly
$500 million a year, which is a much smaller share of total resources than in
the case of Africa.
67. Levels of external assistance similar to those for Latin America will
also be required in North Africa and Western Asia between 2000 and 2015.
68. External assistance to countries with economies in transition in Eastern
Europe and the former Soviet Union will be necessary in order to stop and
reverse the present deterioration of the primary health service infrastructure
so as to facilitate the transformation of their programmes for population and
reproductive health into ones that include quality family-planning information
and services.
69. These resource estimates do not include the cost of implementing some of
the specific goals included in the Programme of Action, such as primary
education for all and reducing maternal and child mortality rates.
70. The Secretary-General of the United Nations has assigned to the
Executive Director of UNFPA the task of coordinating consultations with
various bodies of the United Nations system, the international financial
institutions and various bilateral aid organizations and agencies. This
involves promoting an exchange of information on the requirements for
international assistance; regularly reviewing the specific needs of countries
in the field of population, including emergency and temporary needs; and
maximizing the availability of resources and their effective utilization.
IV. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
71. A majority of the organizations that provided information on their
activities have undertaken efforts in one or more of the three programme
areas. In some cases strategic frameworks to address the population and
environment issues have been adopted, in response to one of the two
Conferences. Prior to the International Conference, regional population
conferences were convened in all major regions. The agendas and declarations
emanating from them reflect the variety of particular regional circumstances,
issues and problems. They all, however, emphasize the need to adopt an
integrated approach to population and sustainability issues, incorporating
population concerns into environmental and sustainable development planning.
Programme area A. Developing and disseminating knowledge concerning the
linkages between demographic trends and factors and
sustainable development
72. Organized by ESCAP and the Conference secretariat, the Fourth Asian and
Pacific Population Conference, with the central theme of "Population and
sustainable development: goals and strategies into the twenty-first century",
noted that understanding the interdependence between people, their development
activities and the environment was of crucial importance. The Conference
adopted the Bali Declaration on Population and Sustainable Development 7/
which emphasizes the crucial role of population factors in environmental
balance and the paramount need fully to incorporate population concerns into
strategies to achieve sustainable development.
73. A similar message was conveyed by the South Pacific Ministerial Meeting
on Population and Sustainable Development. The Port Vila Declaration on
Population and Sustainable Development 8/ noted the differing circumstances of
the island States but none the less emphasized that all countries and
territories shared a strong affinity with and dependence on land and ocean
resources for their livelihood. Those resources were coming under increasing
pressure due to continuing population growth, expanding economic activity and
natural disasters.
74. ECLAC convened the Latin America and Caribbean Regional Conference on
Population and Development. The consensus 9/ adopted by the Conference views
environmental degradation as having many causes, including irrational
development patterns, inappropriate technologies and consumption patterns,
mainly among industrialized countries and privileged minorities in developing
countries, and worsening standards of living for vast sectors of the
population. The declaration points to fragile ecosystems in rural areas as
particularly endangered by rapid expansion of human settlements.
75. The Declaration adopted by the Andean Meeting on Population and
Development 10/ makes similar observations.
76. A conference organized by ESCWA issued the Second Amman Declaration on
Population and Sustainable Development. 11/ The main issues considered by the
European Population Conference, organized by ECE, were population growth, age
structure and international migration.
77. As part of the preparation for the Conference, the Third African
Population Conference adopted the Dakar/Ngor Declaration on Population, Family
and Sustainable Development. 12/ It includes a call for African nations to
accelerate the implementation of the Kilimanjaro Programme of Action for
African Population and Self-reliant Development. 13/ Earlier the Economic
Commission for Africa had developed a strategic framework of action with the
stated objective of enabling African countries to address the problem of
eradicating poverty through sound environmental management for sustainable
development. Among the strategic areas identified were managing demographic
change and pressures, achieving food self-sufficiency and food security and
ensuring efficient and equitable use of water resources.
78. A number of publications were prepared by individual organizations prior
to the Conference. The Latin American Demographic Centre (CELADE), located
within ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean),
submitted a paper on population, social equity and changing production
patterns to the regional conference. Further publications covering the topics
of urbanization and its environmental repercussions and the environmental
sustainability of the great cities of Latin America were also prepared by
CELADE.
79. Extensive programmatic review and consultation were undertaken by WHO in
order to examine the relationship between population dynamics and health and,
in view of that relationship, the appropriate responses required from the
health sector. A WHO position paper provided the starting-point for a
reorientation of the health sector to the issues of population.
80. Databases providing demographic information have been updated or
modified to accommodate the needs posed by the implementation of chapter 5.
Throughout the United Nations system, considerable effort has been put into
developing methodologies and analytical tools for better understanding the
interactions of population and environment variables.
81. The Population Division of the United Nations Secretariat, with funding
from UNFPA, has carried out a project aimed at investigating the current state
of knowledge regarding the relationships between population and the
environment in developing countries. It has prepared a draft report
containing a bibliography, a literature survey of current research, and a
proposed research agenda on critical aspects of those relationships. A report
by the Division on governmental views of the relationship between population
and the environment is being completed.
82. In 1994 UNESCO launched an interdisciplinary and inter-agency project on
environment and population education and information for human development.
The project seeks to refine the knowledge base and develop action frameworks
to strengthen, in the various regions, education training and information
activities dealing in an integrated manner with the environment and population
issues; to foster the development of reoriented education, training and
information programmes and materials; and to mobilize the support of decision
makers and opinion leaders at the international, regional and national levels.
Pilot projects to develop population and environment educational materials and
technical support for the development or reshaping of national education or
training programmes are being designed.
83. FAO has undertaken a number of activities, including an informal round
table of experts on women, population and the environment in South-East Asia;
a review of population/environment issues and concepts for population
programme staff; and the organization of a conference in the Netherlands on
agriculture and the environment. The conference will attempt to improve the
understanding of the implications of sustainability for the agricultural
sector and reach a consensus on the actions needed, including a review of
population issues. With UNFPA assistance, FAO provides advisory services on
population and environment, in particular for programme and project
formulation and implementation.
84. ESCAP's population information programme on improved processing,
management, communication and dissemination of population data and information
involves the following principal activities: supplying direct technical
assistance and cost-sharing in infrastructural development to national
population information (POPIN) centres and networks in the region, in order to
help them acquire, analyse, process and disseminate technical information and
data in support of population policy formulation, planning, research and
programme implementation at the national level; promoting technical
cooperation among national POPIN centres and networks through the exchange of
personnel, training, study visits etc.; establishing subregional population
information networks and undertaking special activities with networks in other
closely related fields, such as health, education, agriculture and
environment; providing improved support to Governments in the acquisition,
analysis, dissemination and utilization of population data and information,
through the establishment of a POPIN data bank; producing and disseminating
population information repackaged to meet the identified interests of various
users; and increasing awareness of population issues and appreciation of their
importance to national development through conferences, exhibitions,
publications etc.
85. Regarding human settlements, UNCHS (Habitat) has in the years since the
Conference continued to develop programmes focusing on urbanization and its
impact on population dynamics - fertility trends, mortality trends, migration
trends, trends in family size and environmental trends. Research is being
undertaken by the Centre on these subjects and on policies and strategies
related to urbanization and development issues, national urbanization, urban
development policies, and strategies with special reference to relationships
between human settlements and sustainable development. In a document UNCHS
prepared for the Conference, on population, urbanization and quality of life,
it underlined the positive effects of urbanization on social change and
modernization, on fertility, mortality and other demographic trends, on
personal and household income levels and on the general economic development
of both the rural and urban areas.
86. Since the Conference UNFPA has undertaken and provided support for a
number of initiatives aimed at exploring the relationship between population,
sustainable development and the environment. These initiatives vary
considerably in scope and focus. They are all, however, aimed at providing
interdisciplinary perspectives and finding cross-sectoral solutions to such
issues. The Fund has, inter alia, supported projects looking at such diverse
topics as poverty, gender, consumption patterns and environmental refugees in
the context of population, environment and sustainable development. In the
field of population and sustainable development, the Fund has engaged in
particularly close cooperation with ILO, FAO, the Population Division of the
Secretariat and the regional economic commissions. Also, it has provided
support for projects and programmes initiated by non-governmental
organizations and academic and research institutions, both in the developing
and the developed countries.
Programme area B. Formulating integrated national policies for environment
and
development, taking into account demographic trends and
factors
87. Central to the integration of population concern in sustainable
development policy formulation is the provision of reliable and timely
information relevant to population and environment decision-making.
Establishing indigenous capacity in this area is therefore of vital
importance. Capacity-building exercises include ECA support for, inter alia,
training at the Regional Centre for Services in Surveying, Mapping and Remote
Sensing and the Regional Centre in Training in Aerospace Surveying. ECLAC
supports two postgraduate courses annually for professionals in population and
development. Several of the modules in the courses deal specifically with
various aspects of demographics and the environment and sustainable
development.
88. The regional commissions already maintain regional population databases
or networks. The regional population database for Latin America and the
Caribbean, DOCPAL, constitutes a bibliographical source for information,
providing a number of services, including access to national databases on
CD-ROM. The scope of DOCPAL is being expanded to compare population and
environmental information.
89. The UNESCO/UNEP International Environmental Education Programme, in
keeping with the recommendations of Agenda 21, has oriented its goals and
actions world wide, incorporating population as an important component of
environmental education. The aim is to contribute more effectively to
improving the quality of life as well as the quality of environment.
Activities include distribution of documents and materials on environmental
education which also contain information on population, and disseminating the
quarterly newsletter Connect.
90. UNESCO, with UNFPA support, expanded its population education programmes
to more levels of the education system, including non-formal education.
Activities include development of methodologies and the design and elaboration
of prototype teaching/learning material.
91. UNCHS provides a range of information services. Through its City Data
Programme and Human Settlements Statistical Database Programme, it is
developing, collating and analysing data on population, households, gender,
housing, infrastructure services and environment. The programmes aim at
building and strengthening national databases on demographic and human
settlements factors and trends. The work is being carried out in
collaboration with the Network on Urban Research in the European Community,
the International Statistical Institute, the International Union of Local
Authorities and the Statistical Division of the United Nations Secretariat.
It includes the collection of statistics on large cities - that is, all cities
of more than 100,000 inhabitants.
92. A number of computer-aided tools are being developed to integrate
population and environment information. CELADE is developing a microcomputer-
based tool to help integrate population information into account geography.
The project, "R+GIS Generic Population-related Application Tools", can combine
population data with data for spatial display to provide alternative scenarios
or illustrate the implications of various assumptions for policy makers. Four
different tools will be developed for various user groups. They should help
local authorities to make knowledgeable decisions and non-governmental
organizations and others outside government to make more informed proposals
and suggestions for the improvements of official programmes.
93. Similarly, in 1993 the Population Division issued version 2.0 of the
Database for Population and Research (PRED Bank). The focus of PRED Bank 2.0
is the interrelationship between population pressure and land use in rural
areas. PRED Bank 2.0 was designed as part of the Integrated Software Package
for Geographical Information, Maps and Graphics (POPMAP), an information
system for microcomputers which combines database, spreadsheet and
geographical mapping facilities. PRED Bank 2.0 contains national data on
approximately 70 relevant variables for the period 1961-1989 for more than 100
developing countries. It is currently available in diskette form with a
user's guide. A report entitled "Population pressure, land use and
environment: national trends" is being completed and will be published in
1995.
94. All the organizations providing information for the present report have
undertaken activities exploring, from different perspectives, the gender
implications of sustainable development relevant to chapter 5. ESCWA focused
on return migration in its studies of Jordanian and Yemeni returnees; it also
conducted a study on family and women returnees.
95. UNFPA currently provides Governments with technical assistance in all
the sectors of population policy, including institutional capacity-building,
training of key personnel, support for the provision of population data and
information on the linkages between population, environment, and sustainable
development.
96. Facilitating the integration of environment and population concerns into
development planning constitutes one of the objectives of the UNFPA Global
Programme of Training in Population and Development. The focus is on
developing national capacity to address the interdisciplinary nature of
development. The five institutions at which training is taking place are or
soon will be located in developing countries.
97. It would be helpful if the operational organizations of the United
Nations system whose mandates relate to chapter 5 of Agenda 21 or chapter 3 of
the Cairo Programme of Action would formulate harmonized guidelines and
specific instructions for their respective field offices on implementation of
the chapters. Such guidelines might be used in the country strategy notes for
the coordination of project/programme activities and for joint programming.
Programme area C. Implementing integrated environment and development
programmes at the local level, taking into account
demographic trends and factors
98. In this programme area close cooperation between institutional partners
in the United Nations system and the importance of establishing new
partnerships or strengthening existing ones with governmental and
non-governmental organizations, particularly grass-roots movements, in order
to ensure maximum effectiveness in promoting sustainable development, were
emphasized. Utilizing the complementarity of the United Nations system and
fostering cross-sectoral initiatives are considered key elements of integrated
programmes.
99. ESCAP's positive experiences with local-level initiatives illustrate
this point. ESCAP maintains that family-planning programmes at the local
level, undertaken by community-based and non-governmental organizations, have
been successful in realizing their targets. In fact such local-level agencies
have emerged as a new locus of economic and social growth, providing
innovative institutional arrangements through which family planning, health,
education and income-generating activities can be integrated at the local
level, ensuring environmentally sensitive sustainable development on a limited
scale. They have the potential not only to revolutionize the delivery of
reproductive health services but also to combat land degradation, promote
community forestry, and in general, bring about significant improvements in
living conditions for the local target populations.
100. A project using population data for local-area development planning in
the countries of the ESCAP region, currently under implementation, is
concerned with the analysis of the 1990 round of census data. It aims to
estimate levels and trends of fertility by local area and, in the process,
determine the underlying socio-economic and cultural context of success and
failure in family-planning policies; analyse local-level patterns of
fertility, infant/child mortality and migration vis-a`-vis socio-economic
characteristics and environmental variables; address the gender issue; and
identify microlevel determinants of programme successes.
101. WHO is providing technical support to various countries to carry out
health research (biomedical, epidemiological, social and operational) for
improving the implementation of their reproductive health programmes.
Particular emphasis is being given to socio-behavioural research and
operations research on cost-effective integration and delivery of the elements
of reproductive health care.
102. The UNCHS Community Development Programme has existed for nearly 10
years. It undertakes a wide range of activities in the seven partner
countries (Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Uganda and Zambia)
and at the global level to promote and support capacity- and institution-
building in low-income urban and rural communities. The empowerment of
community members and leaders to become the motivators of sustainable local
development is one of the most essential means of poverty reduction in the
long term. The Programme draws on Habitat's experience in participatory
approaches to human development and community-based practical experience in
improving human settlements. The Programme is planning to expand its
activities in the developing countries so as to contribute to the improvement
of the living and working conditions of low-income communities and thereby
reduce their poverty.
103. The Women and Human Settlements Development Programme of UNCHS aims to
ensure that all of the programmes, projects and activities of UNCHS clearly
reflect gender considerations. The developmental goal is building gender
awareness by introducing a process of planning, monitoring and evaluating
gender components into the Centre's programmes, projects, and activities. The
approach has been one of advising and training UNCHS staff, both at
headquarters and in the field, to analyse projects and activities in gender-
aware contexts. The Programme is working with other key programmes of the
Centre, such as the Community Participation Training Programme, the Urban
Indicators Project, the Solid Waste Management Programme, and the
Environmental Health and Sanitation Programme, effectively to integrate a
gender perspective into programme activities in the field.
104. The Women and Human Settlements Development Programme sees the following
as the key issues regarding women, environment, urbanization and human
settlements development: increasing the participation of women in the design,
development and implementation of policies and programmes for the sustainable
development of human settlements, including increasing the proportion of women
among decision makers; developing the capacity of women's organizations to
participate actively in the sustainable development of human settlements;
providing social facilities, environmental infrastructure and technologies
that will reduce the workload of women and enhance their environmentally sound
behaviour; and facilitating women's access to land and other natural
resources. The Programme is currently active in major regions of Africa and
Latin America. Significant progress has been made in increasing awareness of
the need to integrate women into development activities in those areas.
105. UNFPA is involved in a number of new initiatives which have the
potential to help bring about demographic patterns that are compatible with
sustainable development. The Partners in Population and Development
Initiative, launched at the Conference in Cairo, is aimed at building and
strengthening technical cooperation among developing countries. The
initiative was established under the leadership of Indonesia, and its major
objectives are to promote the idea of South/South collaboration, share
experiences, and undertake fund-raising. The member countries have
successfully pursued population policies and have, or are undergoing, a
demographic transition to more sustainable population growth.
106. According to a recent report of the Executive Director of UNFPA,
The scope of activities in the area of population and sustainable
development policy should be broadened and linked with efforts in the
areas of health, education, family planning, the condition of women,
poverty alleviation and the environment - the aim being to make
population policy truly an integral part of all other efforts towards
sustainable development. This will require support for data collection
and analysis, relevant socio-cultural and operations research, the
creation and maintenance of relevant databases and support for policy
formulation. 14/
107. The many projects and programmes referred to above do not provide an
exhaustive account of the activities of the organizations of the United
Nations system and other international organizations. The World Bank's
substantial lending to population programmes, for example, is not included.
108. The picture that emerges, however, gives ample reason to believe that in
the field of population, environment and sustainable development there is
considerable need - and many opportunities - for coordination and
collaboration.
V. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS FOR ACTION
A. Conclusions
109. The general awareness of the importance of demographic trends and
factors to environmental and developmental sustainability has increased
gradually over the past few decades. The adoption of Agenda 21 did more than
any other event to bring the issues to the fore. Since then, the number of
people who came to recognize the significance of the issues further increased
and reached its peak as a result of the Cairo Conference in September 1994.
The Programme of Action of that Conference is, on the one hand, a measure of
where the world stands on major demographic issues and, on the other, a
measure of how much remains to be done in the field of population, environment
and sustainable development.
B. Proposals for action
110. The Commission on Sustainable Development might wish to:
(a) Urge Governments to implement the goals and recommendations of the
Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and
Development, with special reference to chapter III, in view of the
Conference's mandate in this area;
(b) Recommend to Governments that they allocate to appropriate
institutions, both public and private, national and international, sufficient
resources for further examining the relationship between population,
environment and sustainable development in order to improve the quality of
planning and policy formulation;
(c) Recommend to Governments that they reinforce their efforts at
institution-building in the field of population and population policies with a
view to prompt integration of population concerns into environmental and
sustainable development planning and policies;
(d) Recommend to the respective bureaux of the Commission on Sustainable
Development and the Commission on Population and Development that they explore
the feasibility of holding joint meetings with a view to examining issues with
a bearing on the implementation of chapter 5 of Agenda 21 and chapter III of
the Programme of Action;
(e) Encourage major groups working in the population/gender field and in
other sustainable development fields to increase their communication,
cooperation and coordination at the local, regional and international levels
in order to reinforce their contribution to the mutual understanding of these
issues and to facilitate their active participation in the implementation of
chapter 5 of Agenda 21 and chapter III of the Programme of Action;
(f) Recommend that UNFPA, with the assistance of UNEP, UNDP and other
relevant institutions, explore the possibility of submitting to the Commission
a periodic report on populations at risk owing to the cumulative effects of
local environmental degradation;
(g) Recommend that Governments, organizations of the United Nations
system and major groups should give particular attention to the need to
involve women in decision-making at all levels in sustainable development
strategies, policies, projects and programmes;
(h) Suggest that in the guidelines for voluntary national reports to the
Commission, appropriate consideration be given to population and gender
concerns.
Notes
1/ Report of the United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development, Rio de Janeiro, 3-14 June 1992, vol. I, Resolutions Adopted by
the Conference (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.93.I.8 and
corrigenda), resolution 1, annex II.
2/ New York, Oxford University Press, 1987.
3/ See A/C.2/44/6, annex.
4/ The Challenge to the South: The Report of the South Commission (New
York, Oxford University Press, 1990).
5/ See A/CONF.171/13 and Add.1.
6/ Ibid., chap. I, para. 1.5.
7/ See E/CONF.84/PC/14.
8/ See A/C.2/48/3.
9/ See E/CONF.84/PC/17.
10/ See A/CONF.171/PC/7/Add.1, paras. 42-45.
11/ See E/CONF.84/PC/16.
12/ See E/CONF.84/PC/13, annex II.
13/ See E/CONF.76/6, pp. 33-45.
14/ DP/1995/8, para. 15.
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